Model-based Policy Analysis and Design
Over the years, my team and I have developed a number of system dynamics simulation models that support decision makers at different levels to improve food system, social and environmental outcomes and effectively manage adaptation to climate change. The simulation models formalize the state of the art in the fields of climate change and food systems research. They study the behavior over time of key performance indicators and analyze the reactions of these indicators to management and policy actions.
Towards sustainable and resilient farming systems in the EU
This EU project analyzes, assesses and improves the resilience and sustainability of farms and farming systems in the EU. For this purpose, SURE-Farm creates scenarios and a resilience-enabling framework, develops, among others, a resilience assessment tool for policies. We are involved both in the formulation of scenarios and particularly in the development of the integrated resilience assessment tool. For the resilience assessment tool, we produce a high level interactive flight simulator that can be used to communicate the main insights gained from the empirical work across SURE-Farm case studies.
Integrated environmental and economic modeling
Population growth, climate change and scarcity of resources are just three examples of the challenges that are facing the Swiss agri-food system. A wide range of stakeholders are affected, and the factors surrounding ensuring a sustainable supply of food are complex. This project is supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation and it uses environmental-economic modelling approaches to simulate potential development paths, providing a basis for decision-making in relation to the direction of the Swiss agri-food system.
While struggling with the livestock sector of the system dynamics model in this project, I had a major aha moment that I documented in a separate blog post.
Linkages between agricultural systems analysis and food security outcomes
With a group of wonderful and wonderfully diverse colleagues, we are currently working on assessing the current state of practice for the representation of food security indicators in agricultural systems models and providing recommendations for improvements in both model formulation and the empirical evidence base underlying it.
The team consists of a human nutritionist focusing on food security, a crop scientist, two agricultural economists, and two food systems modelers. So far, we have published a CGIAR working paper.
Facilitated Systems Modelling with Stakeholders
My research explores how system dynamics can help integrate science-based knowledge underlying impact assessment models and local knowledge so that stakeholders at different levels are better able to continuously test, learn about, and develop knowledge and understanding in order to cope with change and uncertainty.
Our experiences with pilot workshops in Zambia, Ethiopia, Cambodia, Ghana and Guatemala using facilitated modeling mostly with small-scale farmers with little formal education are very promising in this regard.
Facilitated modeling with unconventional target audiences
In 2015, we ran facilitated modeling workshops with small-scale farmers in Central Region, Zambia to investigate the feasibility of systems thinking group intervention.
In other countries, we have tested whether the Zambia experience can be replicated (Ethiopia), adjusted to different contexts (Ghana), how it needs to be adapted to a multi-stakeholder context (Guatemala), and how ready we are to train local trainers (Cambodia).
Both, Ethiopia and Cambodia showed that the main processes driving food security and livelihoods in small-scale farming contexts are surprisingly similar to Zambia and thus generic across continents. The differences between the locations stem mainly from differences in priorities. Somewhat unexpectedly, water was by far the most critical resource in Cambodia while Ethiopian farmers were mostly worried about managing their land stock.
Pilot study on systems modeling for agricultural market transformation
In 2016, I worked with a former student of mine, now a member of senior management, on a pilot study on systems modeling for agricultural market transformation in Kenya. During this pilot study, we ran a series of system dynamics group model building workshops and developed conceptual simulation models for the seed and dairy sector.
These models allow Kenya Markets Trust to understand the main processes driving seed and dairy sector development over time and to evaluate the system-wide impacts of proposed market transformation interventions in the seed and dairy sector.
The simulation models developed during this pilot study can be of use to KMT in two main ways:
- They help explaining important issues and problems in the two pilot sectors.
- They provide a narrative for KMT on why some interventions are more effective than others to facilitate market transformation.
List of Funded Projects
- EU, Horizon Europe. WorldTrans – Transparent Assessments for Real People. (2023-2026).
- The Research Council of Norway. SYNAGRI: Developing synergies between the bioeconomy and regional food systems for a sustainable future. Work Package Leader. (2021-2024).
- EU, Horizon 2020. Shaping European Research Leaders for Marine Sustainability (SEAS) programme. (2022-2024).
- Norwegian Cancer Society. Applying a system dynamics lens to adoption, implementation and impact of school based primary prevention for health behaviour change. Co-principal Investigator. (2022-2024).
- European Economic Area (EEA) Financial Mechanism 2014-2021. GREEN HEAT – towards collaborative local decarbonization. Work Package Leader. (2021-2024).
- The Research Council of Norway. NEW WATER WAYS -Towards water sensitive and climate adapted Nordic cities. Project Partner. (2017-2021).
- International Livestock Research Institute. Setting Priorities to Address the Research Gaps Between Agricultural Systems Analysis and Food Security Outcomes in Low- and Middle-income Countries. Co-principal Investigator. (2018).
- EU, Horizon 2020. Confronting Obesity: Co-creating policy with youth (Co-Create). Task Leader. (2018-2023).
- Forsterkningsmidler, The Research Council of Norway. Towards Sustainable and Resilient Farming Systems in Norway: Impact of Scenarios for Agriculture in Europe. Principal Investigator. (2018).
- EU, Horizon 2020. Towards SUstainable and REsilient EU FARMing systems (SURE-Farm). Task Leader. (2017-2021).
- ETH Zurich World Food System Center. Assessing the role of organic value chains in enhancing food system resilience. Co-investigator. (2017-2021).
- Swiss National Science Foundation. Co-Evolution of Business Strategies in material and construction industries and public policies. (2017-2020).
- Swiss National Science Foundation. Sustainable and healthy diets: Trade-offs and synergies. Co-principal Investigator. (2016-2018).
- Peder Sather Center for Advanced Studies, UC Berkeley. Knowledge analysis in coupled social-ecological systems. A pilot study in smallholder farmer communities in Zambia. Co-principal Investigator. (2014-2015).
- Swiss National Science Foundation. Environmental-economic models for evaluating the sustainability of the Swiss agri-food system. Co-principal Investigator. (2013-2016).
- Norwegian Research Council. Simulation based tools for linking knowledge with action to improve and maintain food security in Africa. Principal Investigator. (2012-2017).